Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 1st, 2014
June 1, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. The estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter was revised down to a -1.0% annual rate (vs. +0.1% in the advance estimate). Most of the revision was due to a slower pace of inventory growth, which ought to pave the way for increased production in 2Q14.
Slower inventory growth subtracted 1.6 percentage points from overall GDP growth (vs. -0.6 ppt in the advance estimate), while a wider trade deficit subtracted 1.0 percentage point (vs. -0.8 ppt in the advance estimate.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 25th, 2014
May 25, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Next week, the report on durable goods orders should reflect a decrease in aircraft orders and may be a little soft otherwise (possibly reflecting an impact from the late Easter holiday this year).
The estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter is likely to be revised lower, but the story shouldn’t change much (most economists are expected a strong rebound in 2Q14 GDP growth).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 19th, 2014
May 19, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Concerns about the economic recovery at home and abroad helped pushed long-term interest rates lower (with the 10-year Treasury yield below 2.5%). Stocks fell broadly.
The economic data were mixed. April retail sales and industrial production disappointed, but there were upward revisions to previous figures. Building permits and housing starts jumped sharply in April, but strength was concentrated in the volatile multi-family sector.
Single-family construction activity improved only modestly. The Consumer Price Index rose in line with expectations, reflecting higher prices of food and gasoline. A jump in airline fares added to the core CPI.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 11th, 2014
May 11, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data calendar was thin. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index was stronger than expected, but the details of the report, including comments from supply managers, suggested that growth was not especially strong.
In her congressional testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that “although real GDP growth is currently estimated to have paused in the first quarter of this year, I see that pause as mostly reflecting transitory factors, including the effects of the unusually cold and snowy winter weather,” adding “many recent indicators suggest that a rebound in spending and production is already under way, putting the overall economy on track for solid growth in the current quarter.”
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 4th, 2014
May 4, 2014
Clarksville, TN – There were a lot of economic data reports this week. Most of them were consistent with weather-related restraint in 1Q14 and a rebound in activity into early 2Q14. Real GDP rose at a 0.1% annual rate in the advance estimate for 1Q14 – while weather was a factor, the GDP growth figure was also trimmed by a wider trade deficit and slower inventory growth.
Personal income and spending figures improved in March, with upward revisions to figures for February. Unit auto sales slowed a little in April, still well above the first quarter average.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 29th, 2014
April 29, 2014
Clarksville, TN – March home sales figures were disappointing and while the numbers are normally choppy, suggested that there may be something more to the slowdown in housing than bad weather (mortgage rates are higher than a year ago, while prices have risen significantly over the last three years).
Next week, it’s a very busy calendar, with fresh figures for April. Consumer confidence is expected to pick up. Real GDP growth is likely to be relatively soft (0.4% to +1.4%), with a weather-related restraint on consumer spending and homebuilding, drags from slower inventory growth and a wider trade deficit, and a rebound in government (following the drag from the shutdown in 4Q13).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 22nd, 2014
April 22, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Stock market participants seemed only mildly concerned about escalating tensions in Ukraine, but were encouraged by comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen suggest that the Fed would respond to significant, surprising changes in the outlook for growth, inflation expectations, or financial conditions.
Short-term interest rates aren’t going to be raised for a while, but the first increase in rates could be pushed out if the Fed remains short of its goals (full employment, 2% inflation).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 13th, 2014
April 13, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was relatively thin. The Producer Price Index rose more than expected in March, reflecting a pickup in services (which had fallen in February). Details continue to suggest limited inflation pressure in the pipeline.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data continued to suggest a large amount of slack in the job market (hiring rates and quit rates are trending flat, still low by historical standards). The IMF slightly lowered its forecast for global growth this year and next, with larger downward shifts in the outlook for Russia and Brazil.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 6th, 2014
April 6, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The data remained consistent with a continued economic recovery. However, it’s unclear how much of the improvement is simply a rebound from bad weather and how much is underlying strength.
The monthly ISM surveys were mixed. Motor vehicle sales rebounded sharply in March (suggesting that bad weather postponed sales, just as we saw with the government shutdown in October). The March Employment Report was close to expectations.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 3rd, 2014
April 3, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports were mixed and mostly ignored by the financial markets. Real GDP rose at a 2.6% annual rate in the 3rd estimate for 4Q13 (vs. +2.4% in the second estimate and +3.2% in the advance estimate).
Most of the story remained that same. Government subtracted a full percentage point from overall growth, but that was offset by a narrower trade deficit (which added a percentage point).
Frazier Allen
