Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 8th, 2013
April 8, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The economic data were generally disappointing. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a disappointing 88,000 in March (median forecast: +200,000), up 759,000 before seasonal adjustment (vs. +901,000 in March 2012). Payroll figures for January and February were revised a net 61,000 higher (adjusted payrolls average a 168,000 monthly gain in 1Q13, roughly the same pace as the last two years).
Mild weather in February may have pulled forward some of March’s strength, but the slowdown could signal a lagged impact of the payroll tax increase. The unemployment rate fell to 7.6% (vs. 7.7% in February and 8.2% a year ago), but this was once again due to a decrease in labor force participation (participation should be rising if the labor market is strengthening, as individuals are lured back into the job market). The employment/population ratio edged down to 58.5%, trending roughly flat over the last few years. [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 31st, 2013
March 31, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The economic data were mixed. Third quarter GDP growth rose at a 0.4% annual rate in 4Q12 (vs. +0.1% in the 2nd estimate and -0.1% in the advance estimate), but consumer spending growth was revised down (suggesting less momentum into 1Q13). Consumer confidence fell in March, with a sharp drop in expectations (which are thought to be a factor in big-ticket purchases). Durable goods orders jumped, reflecting a rebound in aircraft, but were mixed and generally soft otherwise. Home prices continued to rise. Weekly claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly, which could signal a lagged impact from the payroll tax increase and higher gasoline prices, but it’s only one week.
The Dutch finance minister said that the Cyprus bank bailout could serve as a model for other countries, although he tried to walk those comments back shortly after. Most observers see the Cypriot bailout as a disaster and are now looking at the possibility of similar debacles in the smaller eurozone countries (Malta, Slovenia, perhaps even Luxembourg with its outsized banking industry). It’s going to be another long year for Europe. [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 24th, 2013
March 24, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The “Crisis in Cyprus” dampened the U.S. stock market mood early in the week. Why is Cyprus important? Its economy is a little bigger than Scranton. However, like Iceland and Ireland, it has an outsized banking system, several times larger than the overall economy. Even a moderate contraction in the banking system can have a huge impact.
The biggest fear is contagion. The decision to tie aid to a haircut on deposits led to fears of runs on the banks in other countries, but there’s been little evidence of that so far.
There were no surprises from Fed policymakers. The Federal Open Market Committee did not change its forward guidance (on the federal fund rate target, still not expected to start rising until 2015), nor did it alter its asset purchase plans (still $85 billion per month). [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 24th, 2013
February 24, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The FOMC minutes from the January 29th-30th policy meeting showed a greater level of discomfort regarding the Fed’s large-scale asset purchases. “Many participants,” suggesting a majority, “expressed some concerns about potential costs and risks arising from further asset purchases.”
Several participants “discussed the possible complications that additional purchases could cause for the eventual withdrawal of policy accommodation, a few mentioned the prospect of inflationary risks, and some noted that further asset purchases could foster market behavior that could undermine financial stability.” Several others “argued that the potential costs of reducing or ending asset purchases too soon were also significant, or that asset purchases should continue until a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook had occurred.” [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 20th, 2013
February 20, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
In his State of the Union Address, President Obama proposed various efforts to boost manufacturing jobs, universal pre-K education and an increase in the minimum wage. However, there’s little chance that any of these proposals will make it to the floor of the House.
The economic data were mixed. Retail sales rose a modest 0.1% in January. Industrial production slipped 0.1%, but figures for November and December were revised higher. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index and the mid-February reading on consumer sentiment surprised to the upside. [Read more]
