Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 13th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was thin. Jobless claims fell more than expected (not too unusual), while the four-week average remained very low (about as low as it can go given the normal labor market frictions). Small business optimism fell in February. The Quarterly Services Survey pointed to an upward revision to the estimate of consumer spending growth for 4Q15.

The European Central Bank surprised the markets by doing much more than expected (lowering interest rates, expanding QE, and making other efforts to boost growth).

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 6th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in February, while figures for the two previous months were revised higher. At 228,000, the three-month average has remained strong. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, but labor force participation continued to pick up and the employment/population ratio is trending higher.

Hours fell, likely reflecting bad weather (weakness in hours was concentrated in mining, which includes energy exploration, and construction). Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% (following a 0.5% rise in January), bringing the year-over-year gain down to 2.2% (from 2.5%), but the three-month average was up nearly 2.5% y/y.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 7th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. The ISM Manufacturing Index remained below the break even level in January, with a pickup in new orders and a softening in employment.

The ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Index slowed more than anticipated. The January Employment Report seemed to have something for everybody. Nonfarm payrolls rose less than forecast.

However, the unemployment rate edged lower, hours moved higher and average hourly earnings advanced – all likely to catch the attention of Fed policymakers.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 27th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – Global worries continued, but the U.S. stock market rebounded somewhat after a sharp slide on Wednesday, lending hope to the view that the worst is behind us. Oil prices also improved, but it’s not clear whether the global outlook was helped by higher oil prices or the other way around.

Yields on long-term Treasuries fell on the flight to safety, but that was partly unwound as global worries eased at the end of the week. Investors also took encouragement from European Central Bank President Draghi’s comments that the ECB will review and reconsider its policy outlook in March.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 16th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – The important economic data reports were bunched up on Friday. December retail sales results were somewhat disappointing. Industrial production was weighed down by mild temperatures (lower output of utilities) and a further contraction in energy exploration.

Manufacturing output edged down modestly, mixed across sectors, but generally soft over the last several months. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index fell sharply in January.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 13th, 2015

Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was thin. The headline retail sales figures for November were not far from expectations, but core sales (which exclude autos, building materials and gasoline) were up 0.6% (stronger than anticipated). The Producer Price Index continued to reflect disinflation pressure, with falling prices within the pipeline.

Commodity prices fell further, led by a drop in oil (now below the critical $40.00 level). Anxieties about the decline in commodity prices fed through to the stock market, which fell broadly during the week and cast some doubt about the Fed’s ability to raise rates next week (still likely, but increased financial instability could lead to a delay).

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 6th, 2015

Clarksville, TN – Fed Chair Janet Yellen did not commit to raising rates in December, but she continued to lay the groundwork for an initial hike. She noted that with interest rates close to zero, the consequence of raising rates too soon or too late is not symmetric, which suggests that the Fed should be cautious as it prepares to tighten monetary policy.

However, she also noted that monetary policy affects the economy with a lag, and waiting too long raises risks for the economy and for financial stability.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 2nd, 2015

Clarksville, TN – Next week, the economic calendar has plenty of fresh figures. The ISM surveys and Friday’s employment report would normally be the highlights (and those reports will be important), but financial market participants will be more interested in what happens Thursday.

The European Central Bank’s Governing Council is expected to expand its asset purchase program, while Fed Chair Janet Yellen with testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Yellen is likely to provide a clearer signal that the Fed will begin raising short-term interest rates at the December policy meeting.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 15th, 2015

Clarksville, TN – The economic data calendar was relatively thin, leaving stock market investors to fret about a likely December rate hike from the Fed. A 25-basis-point increase in short-term interest rates should not have much of an impact on the economy, especially if the Fed follows up very gradually (as anticipated).

However, the financial markets see the initial tightening move as a big deal, so it is. Weak earnings results haven’t helped, but most of the weakness is tied to the strong dollar and slower growth abroad.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 8th, 2015

Clarksville, TN – The October employment report was much stronger than anticipated. However, figures should be considered in their proper context. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 271,000, with a net upward revision to the two previous months of +12,000.

Due to the start of the school year, seasonal adjustment can be tricky in October (we added 1.152 million jobs before seasonal adjustment, versus 1.081 million in October 2014).

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